Prediki
Prediki (Prediki Prediction Markets GmbH) is a peer-to-peer platform for opinion research and collective intelligence, built around prediction market methodology. Rather than simple polling, participants make structured predictions about outcomes, stake a position, and provide reasons — the system aggregates these into probability estimates while tracking the quality of each contributor's predictions over time.
The platform was developed by Hubertus Hofkirchner, a DOD member who presented it at the 2017 Designing Open Democracy event alongside Nicolas Gruen.
How it differs from polling
- Reason capture — participants specify why they are making a prediction, enabling sentiment and argument analysis
- Reputation tracking — contributors with better track records carry more weight
- Argument mapping — the system breaks down opinion clusters and the reasoning behind them visually
Meine Stimme GILT
Hofkirchner is also an executive board member of Meine Stimme GILT ("My Voice Counts"), a non-partisan Austrian civic organisation focused on decentralising collective political decision-making.
Links
- Website: prediki.com
See also
History
-
2011-12-30
Prediki Prediction Markets GmbH registered in Vienna
Sourcing: High
Registrar: Commercial Court of Vienna, FN 373457b, dated 30 December 2011
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2012-01-01
Open prediction market platform goes online
Sourcing: Medium
Exact launch date never published. Wayback brackets it — www.prediki.com still read "Under construction" as of 1 Dec 2011, and by 5 Apr 2012 served the operational site (a Flash-era page titled "Prediki Prognosedienste", so nothing quotable survives from the era itself). Consistent with the live site's footer, "© 2012 - 2022 Prediki", and with the GmbH registration one month prior (previous event).
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2017-02-17
Publishes study showing its wahlfieber.com markets beat pollsters after Germany's 2016 state elections
Sourcing: High
The prediction error on Prediki’s platform wahlfieber.com for example, only amounted to 1.87 percentage points, the average error of all German political stock markets came to an excellent 2.65 percentage points.
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